World Series 2009 Game 1 Preview: Cliff Lee vs. CC Sabathia

Clifton Phifer (Philly?) Lee and Carsten Charles Sabathia were good pitchers this year; of that, there is no doubt.  Each has been even better in the post-season.  Just so we know how rare this match-up is, only three times have Cy Young Award winners faced off in game 1 of the World Series.  The most recent instance was in 1995 with Greg Maddux (’92-’95 NL winner) matching up with Orel Hersheiser (’88 NL Winner).  Before that we have to go back 40 years to 1969 when Tom Seaver and Mike Cuellar faced off, and they actually both won it in ’69 (Bob Gibson and Denny McClain had actually accomplished the same feat the year before).  You may have guessed this particular matchup of the ’07 and ’08 AL Cy Young winners is unique in that no two who won the award for the same team have matched up, especially not with both playing for different teams.  In short, they should know each other well.

So let’s take a look at these two pitchers.  Lee was born nearly two years before Sabathia, but made his debut nearly two seasons later.  Sabathia had pretty much been a rotation mainstay for the Indians (and more recently the Brewers and Yankees) before making the leap to consistently superb over the last four seasons.  Lee had his ups and downs (more downs) before the monster 2008 season.  He has followed up that Cy Young campaign with very good half seasons for each of the Indians and Phillies.

We’ve established that they’ve had very different careers to get to the points they are right now.  CC’s 29, Lee’s 31.  CC had success from the start, Lee has had his share of struggles; however, both are very good now.  But here’s the part where it gets freaky.  Look at Sabathia from his Cy season through now and Lee over the last two years and the magnitude (and oddity) of this matchup becomes clearer.  Neither was the best pitcher in his respective league (or, in Lee’s case, leagues), but both were very good.  And similar!  FanGraphs WAR over the last two seasons for Sabathia and Lee converted into salary figures values them as having been worth $60.9 and $61.8 million, respectively.  They’ve come to this success in sustainable manners, although through slightly different methods: Lee walks very few while striking out a good number, while Sabathia’s numbers are a bit higher in both categories; neither gives up very many home runs.  Both pitch a lot of innings.  For all of the hype Sabathia gets as a “horse,” would you belive Cliff Lee actually pitched more innings this season (granted, it’s an inning and two-thirds, but still)?  Sabathia and Lee rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in complete games and innings pitched over the past two years (behind Roy Halladay, of course).  They’re tied for 2nd behind Halladay in wins over that two year span with 36 each.

Both have continued their ridiculous success (and similarity) into the postseason.  They’ve each started three games, with Lee pitching slightly better.  He has pitched an extra 1 2/3 innings (just like in the regular season), given up 3 fewer hits, and has given up no home runs to CC’s 1.  But each has walked exactly three men while striking out 20, for an identical K/BB ratio and their ERAs are, as to be expected, sparkling.

But here’s where things might get interesting tonight.  Lee and Sabathia are roughly typical lefties, in that they fare better against  lefty batters than they do against right-handed hitters, and that platoon split was more pronounced this year for both of them (with a difference of over .100 in OPS).  Sabathia will be facing a lineup in which the three best hitters are lefties, and two other switch-hitting lineup regulars in Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino who fare significantly worse batting right-handed.  Lee will be facing a lineup with three lefties, two righties, and FOUR switch-hitters.  Only one of those switch-hitters, Jorge Posada, shows a significant platoon split.

Both of these lineups are potent.  Both of these pitchers have been VERY good for the last two years, with success in both leagues.  I expect this to be a thoroughly entertaining and well-pitched game, but the outcome may depend on how these lineups have been constructed.

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